Let’s Be Careful Out There

So I’m taking a break and decided to write the column today…I’m in the process of negotiating a reasonably complex deal between someone in Malaysia who wants to sell wood, someone in China who can cure and prepare it, someone in Pakistan who will do the final manufacturing, and someone in the USA who wants to buy the finished product – without globalisation, where would we all be? For sure a whole lot of people in all those countries (not to mention me) would be a lot worse off – because of globalisation, companies and countries can actively and positively employ their comparative advantage(s).

Left alone, as enshrined in various trading agreements, everyone prospered – more money, more prosperity, better standard of living, and a bright future for many millions who previously had none. So now, instead, headlines show that Chinese are investing less in the USA (90% less according to some reports (eg: New York Times, July 21st/19) and that follows that Chinese tourism is down and the numbers of students from China attending American schools is falling off a cliff. How does the Swamp-Drainer-in-Chief feel that this decline enables his economy? Or is it true that his ultimate agenda, as Nancy Pelosi said in response to his attacks – yes, plural; there were more than one – on the 4 Congresswomen that his agenda seems to be “Make America White Again”? One thing is certain – the level of distrust of Donald and, by association, the USA is at all-time highs as he wilfully and gleefully and equally insults, lies, cheats, and breaks agreements with friends, allies and enemies with gay abandon, all to the cheers of his fawning sycophants. Just like a client being lost is so hard to get back, once trust is lost……

He and his supporters wanted to lock Hillary Clinton up, not because of her shrill voice (LOL), but because she allegedly used a private server for some government-related email. Now that Ivanka, Jared, and at least 11 other high-ranking people in his Administration (sic) are being investigated for the exact same transgression, it is no big deal (in his opinion). Oh, and speaking of Ivanka, who DT had bruited for Head of the World Bank, she is such a wizard with facts and figures that the other day she congratulated Boris Johnson upon his becoming Prime Minister of the United Kingston – I guess that it was a purely blond moment. Maybe her daughter’s new dog peed on the script and the ink ran. Just hypothesizing here but she can use it if she wants.

According to Xinhua on July 21st/19, “the new sci-tech stock market (which bears the anacronym, STAR) is the latest reform attempt to turn the A-share stock market into a more market-oriented and law-based one” – why don’t you tell me what it means as I am not sure….are they imputing that the Shanghai stock market is not governed by laws? Who knew? Next they will be telling us that there is rampant insider trading, false financial declarations, disguised ownership etc.. The Financial Times and Reuters made a big deal about the shares going up on the first day of trading “as much as 520%”. Actually, only one company’s shares reached that pinnacle and the overall average was 135% increase – and the overall decrease on the very next day was 9%. They ran it up and then pulled their money out – gotta love those “laws”, especially the one that says, “What goes up must come down”.

I mentioned in an earlier edition of the Global Gab that the world owes the people of Hong Kong a huge debt for the way in which they all took the Hong Kong Government to task over the Beijing-proposed detestable extradition law. They have adopted the song from Les Miserables entitled, “Do you hear the people sing”, and the professionalism and determination which the citizens of Hong Kong have demonstrated have now been replicated in Puerto Rico, where demonstrations against an elected and sitting governor have compelled the rogue (and many of his cronies) to resign (and hopefully face charges). In Turkey, the people, despite the widespread intimidation by the ruling party and its minions, rejected Erdogan’s candidate for mayor and elected the opposition’s. Sun Tsu said it best 2500 years ago – “He who loses the hearts and minds of the people cannot win”. Chiang Kai-Shek (Chiang Chungsheng), who by all accounts was a far better general than Mao Zedong, forgot that dictum and paid the price for his mistake.

The use of thugs to ‘maintain order’ (sic) is nothing new in politics but the recent blatant use of triad members to deliberately beat marchers and bystanders in Hong Kong while the police were “unable to respond” is reprehensible. One pro-Beijing Hong Kong legislator (sic) averred publicly that the police could not respond because they were “tired” after so many demonstrations. Is this the way that the Beijing-disposed Hong Kong Government expects to foster good will and social harmony? If anyone was previously undecided about the underlying degree of corruption of thought and venality of purpose, then the stench from this disgusting abrogation of legislative responsibility should decide the matter once and for all.

Speaking of stench, I have mentioned several times previously the economic morass that is the current economic system in China. In January of this year, the Minsheng Bank was unable to repay a bond of RMB3 billion – there are another slew of bonds still due this year. Minsheng was a well-connected bank of 58,000 employees and there had been concerns about its viability since at least 2014. A few months ago, Baoshang Bank (Inner Mongolia) was taken over by the regulators ….on July 15th/19, the auditors of the Bank of Jinzhou, Ernst & Young, resigned and the regulators stepped in as the bank is having “liquidity problems”. Stay tuned for bank failure of the month.

Finally, for all you stock aficionados, Goldman Sachs was reported in Bloomberg on the 25th as saying that, “stocks cannot go much higher”. Coincidentally (???), the VIX on the 24th had volume of 500,000 call contracts to one buyer (putting that in perspective, the normal total daily volume is 50,000) postulating that stocks would fall in September…..to quote NYPD Blue, “Let’s be careful out there”.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Comments? – suggestions?

Have a great weekend – thanks for reading.

Let me know below or write me at benlittle@facetedproducts.com